Global sales of chipmaking equipment will hit US$108.5 billion in 2022, a record, according to the US-based industry group SEMI. That is 5.9% above the old high of US$102.5 billion set in 2021, and it makes three record years in a row.
SEMI released the figures in its year-end equipment forecast on Tuesday, Dec 13. The group expects the market to shrink to US$91.2 billion next year, then recover in 2024 as both front-end and back-end segments pick up.
SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha said record fab construction pushed equipment sales past the US$100 billion mark for a second straight year. He added: “Emerging applications in multiple markets have set expectations for significant semiconductor industry growth this decade, which will necessitate further investments to expand production capacity.”
Wafer fab equipment
Wafer fab equipment, which covers wafer processing, fab facilities and mask and reticle gear, is the biggest block. SEMI sees it growing 8.3% to a record US$94.8 billion in 2022. Then comes a 16.8% drop to US$78.8 billion in 2023, and a 17.2% rebound to US$92.4 billion in 2024.
Foundry and logic make up more than half of that spending. Sales there should climb 16% to US$53.0 billion this year, since demand for both leading-edge and mature chips is still strong. Investment is due to fall in 2023, taking segment sales down 9%.
Memory is the weak spot. As enterprise and consumer demand for memory and storage softens, DRAM equipment sales are forecast to drop 10% to US$14.3 billion in 2022 and another 25% to US$10.8 billion in 2023. NAND equipment falls 4% to US$19.0 billion this year and 36% to US$12.2 billion in 2023.
Back-end and regions
SEMI says tougher economic and industry conditions will cut back-end sales too. Test equipment, which grew 30% in 2021, is forecast to slip 2.6% to US$7.6 billion in 2022 and 7.3% to US$7.1 billion in 2023. Assembly and packaging, up 87% in 2021, should fall 14.9% to US$6.1 billion and then 13.3% to US$5.3 billion. Both recover in 2024, with growth of 15.8% for test and 24.1% for assembly and packaging.
China, Taiwan and Korea stay the top three spending destinations in 2022. China held the top spot for the first time in 2020 and is projected to keep it next year, while SEMI expects Taiwan to take the lead back in 2024. Every region tracked except South Korea should grow equipment spending this year. Most will see a decline in 2023 before growth resumes in 2024.
