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Conflict With Iran

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WASHINGTON, September 18 — An unidentified projectile struck a second oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, setting the vessel ablaze as it transited the waterway, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it struck a Togo-flagged ship attempting to cross the strait, according to CBS. The strike is the latest flashpoint in a conflict that has been worsening. In February, the United States and Israel attacked Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military infrastructure.

A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire and a June memorandum of understanding halted large-scale fighting, but both sides have since traded strikes over alleged violations. Core disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief remain unresolved.

As part of its blockade of the strait, U.S. Central Command said it has redirected more than one hundred commercial ships traveling to and from Iranian ports. The escalation comes as President Donald Trump weighs a significant military decision. In comments to Axios, Trump said he needs to decide whether to “annihilate” the Iranian regime.

His statement came ahead of a planned meeting next Tuesday with leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. A UN fact-finding mission said it had “grounds to believe” that the U.S. military had struck a school and a sports facility in February—and that those actions could have been war crimes, according to CBC.

Earlier, another projectile hit an oil tanker in the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported a fire broke out on the ship after it was struck over the weekend, CNN reported. Omani authorities said two sailors are missing.

The IRGC claimed the ship hit a naval mine, while U.S. Central Command said it was hit by an Iranian drone, according to the BBC. On September 9, U.S. Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in response to attempted Iranian missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan and attacked ten commercial ships. Jordan’s military said its air defenses intercepted eighteen ballistic missiles and reported no casualties. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel, its first time past that threshold since July 24.

The day before, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it captured an uncrewed U.S. submarine at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Treasury Department separately issued thirty-six sanctions designations targeting the remaining elements of Iran’s aviation sector as part of a broader campaign to isolate Tehran from its remaining trading partners.

Iran has pursued a nuclear program since at least 1957. Spurred by security concerns from its war with Iraq, Iran is believed to have decided to pursue nuclear weapons as early as the mid-1980s. Throughout the 1990s, Iran pursued agreements with China and Russia to advance the program.

In the summer of 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran exposed the existence of two Iranian nuclear sites hidden from the International Atomic Energy Agency. By 2003, diplomats launched an intensive effort to halt the program.

Iran agreed, insisting only on keeping its centrifuges for nuclear energy. But it did not follow through on its commitment to transparent reporting and continued covert activities, leading to a June 2004 rebuke and a September 2005 finding of non-compliance by the IAEA. In 2006, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1696, the first legally binding call for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Over the next few years, the council imposed crippling economic sanctions.

Between 2011 and 2015, the compounding effects led Iran’s economy to contract by 20 percent and unemployment to rise to 20 percent. In 2013, Hassan Rouhani won Iran’s presidential election, campaigning on a promise to lift sanctions and restore the economy.

Over the next two years, the United States convened several rounds of bilateral talks and led the other P5+1 coalition members—China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom—in negotiations. These efforts culminated in the adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. The JCPOA required Iran to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98 percent for fifteen years.

What to watch next: whether Trump follows through on his threat ahead of Tuesday’s meeting with regional leaders, and whether the tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz draw a direct U.S. military response.

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